[Seminaire CREM] Présentation de Pauline MILLE, Université de Rennes, CREM

Abstract:
This paper identifies a new mechanism contributing to gender imbalances in political representation. We argue that as electoral competition intensifies, parties adopt more inclusive nomination strategies to appeal to a broader electorate—a dynamic we term the Running Horse hypothesis. We test this mechanism using data from the 2020 French municipal elections, applying a propensity score matching strategy to approximately 18,000 lists across 8,700 municipalities with more than 1,000 inhabitants. The results strongly supports the Running Horse hypothesis. However, women are also less likely to head the largest or most electorally dominant lists, in line with the Sacrificial Lamb hypothesis. This creates a form of “double burden”: women face obstacles entering the pool of political candidates, and when they do overcome these barriers, they often find themselves running in tougher electoral environments and with structurally lower chances of winning.
co-écrit avec Benoît Le Maux et Mara Vidali